# A PSA to the greater OW community during the COVID-19 Pandemic

• @Telomere Your name suggests a certain knowledge of microbiology. The data you have provided is also excellent. As a teacher and microbiologist I have presented the same info to my students. But you have left a few key statistics out that need to mentioned.
Like Influenza Covid is primary a respiratory virus. Meaning that they damage the lungs but generally not enough to kill you. But this damage makes you vulnerable to secondary infection, mostly pneumonia.
The data that you haven't mentioned is fatality rates. This is tricky since obviously that majority of people who get the flu don't run to the doctor and get tested. So we do a lot of mathematical modeling to come up with the data you have provided. To compare COVID to the flu we need data. China would be the best source, but, its China and they don't have much of a track record for tell the truth. So lets look at areas that have a better history there.
As you mentioned the level of testing will skew the data heavily.
Agressive testing and isolation of infected As of 6 April 2020
South Korea: 186/10284 x 100 = 1.8%
Germany: 1590/100186 x100 = 1.5%

For a comparison
less aggressive testing but similar in geography and time:
France: 8093/93780 x 100 = 8.6%
Italy: 15887/128948 x 100 = 12.3%

Based on your data the fatality rate for influenza is
61,000/45,000,000 x 100 = 0.13%

While there is still much we don't know about Covid-19, you can't ignore that the fatality rate is at least 10x
This is also what the best current mathematical models are also showing.
For lots of data on this: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality

So with no intervention (based on your data) we have a virus that 2x as infective (R=2-3.11 vs R=1.3) with a 10x fatality rate.
9,300,000 - 45,000,000 x2 = 18,600,000 - 90,000,000 cases x 0.01 = 186,000 to 900,000 fatalities.

(The USA is about 2 weeks behind the curve of Europe, but I have no interest in a political debate. Just the data for me thanks)

• @a_onekatie
HiyaKatie ..!? π€ We got the message and thankyou! π I'm sure a lot of people saw your message and it was absorbed
No politics here or rhetoric to try to keep you interested in reading my comments so you'll comment back....
Oh and if I could just do one small plug here..
Fellow OneWheelerer's! Surely you're aware that this strange point in history may be upon us longer than we had expected. You must be vigilant and stay inside, avoiding traffic at all cost. Refuse to go outside.π· Take a stand with family, friend and well π₯π₯.......anybody else currently around you at the moment.π π₯π₯
Once that's done you got to "sneak away" dudes !! π³π The streets are empty!!! We may never get this opportunity again!.. I swear I feel like a superhero out there sometimes. Seriously though (GO!!) always always be careful. These things are machines after all, though sometimes they feel like an extension of us while riding. Always be prepared for the unexpected by having an escape plan every second of your ride. Think I'm kidding? Do it! Then just when you've had enough, keep doing it! (Split Sec escape plan) You'll become a much safer and stronger rider all around. "Live to ride/ride to Life" .....(ya, I'm Workin on it π€·π»ββοΈ) (small plug right hea hea.πβοΈ)

• @Franko
Yup! That's the word that gets me everytime, "mutate" nobody in the news that I'm aware of have even gone there yet. Have they?? Hoping it was safe to assume that that's not a possibility..everybody would be up in arms if they failed to mention that and knew it was a possibility. Does anybody know the odds on that? Have they displayed those stats??ΒΏΒΏ Somebody tell me that it's absurd to ponder this be a product of engineering at its finest at some point in time? If the virus has no incubation period they can give it to hypotheticallyeverybody. Say for example over the last year dropping from planes on us and beyond microscopic dust size. Inhaling each and every day but beyond our knowledge. Never to be noticed by anyone. Then, systematically fires off at will where and when outbreaks will occur maybe doing it in waves so the little people can catch their breathe. Okay maybe the remote thing is a stretch but not out of the realm of possibility in this day and age. Say incubation. It could still be done. Be safe and keep it under the table as much as possible. They decide and say we won't let any testing be done as long as we can hold it back. Again, so we won't know we even have it until it's upon us. Folks, was it 2010 or 2012 when all those FEMA camps were found and wasn't it thousands or was it millions of body bags lined up on the ground. ( Made all the headlines in the conspiracy world and all over YouTube at time) was it for this? Somebody's evil plan get delayed? Yes, or course they weren't able to take our guns, remember? Of course with Snowden coming forward alerting us to the joy of metadata and it's use on us by our very own government. Hmm, I'm missing the third. I'm sure there's a third thing, there's always a third thing. Possibly Hillary losing the election?..bom bom boOOmm ! Could beπ€·π»ββοΈ
Anyway incublation period?! Or...just another way of say, "sorry, you don't know when the fuck are you going to get it!"

• Finally some good news. The CDC was estimating over 200,000 fatalities in the US. They were basing that estimate on models where about 50% of the population stayed home or social distanced. Well the population has embraced intervention quite a bit beyond that 50% and as a result the CDC has revised their model to just over 80,000.
And
SlyFoxxx, I do go for one about 5 mile ride a day, I go out late, touch nothing, never get off the board. I feel like Will Smith in Omega Man. Empty streets, with zombies hiding inside.

• @Sponge315
Sorry bout delayed response.
That's funny you mentioned Omega Man. Great example!! Just be careful out there. I'm pretty good and I still run into the unexpected. Night riding is my favorite time but I always make sure I'm extra careful since it's harder to see all those road imperfections. If you do come upon say, a speed bump or crack in road (out of nowhere) you'll find out eventually that going-with-it is surprisingly the best option rather than accepting a fall. Just last night for example, I was going top speed on unknown turf. I didnt see the speed bump!! Luckily at 49 I still haven't lost my childhood reflexes. I was able to hop up just enough taking some weight off the board so I had better chance at making it. It payed off and nothing feels better than "making it" from what could have turned out to be an ugly accident. I've noticed many times this has happened to the point of it's better to drudge through In most cases than ditching! You'll surprise yourself having that tiny bit of extra confidence in your board when the time comes.

• The country is really feeling the emotional and economic pressure to get some normalcy back in our lives. I thought I would just share a little more data. This curve is from the CDC web sight.

Obviously there is a lot of disagreement among the models as to where we are right now (first graph). If we use the second, averaging graph, we are looking at a little over 100,000 fatalities and pretty flat growth by the first of July.
Fingers Crossed

• @Telomere Your name suggests a certain knowledge of microbiology. The data you have provided is also excellent. As a teacher and microbiologist I have presented the same info to my students. But you have left a few key statistics out that need to mentioned.
Like Influenza Covid is primary a respiratory virus. Meaning that they damage the lungs but generally not enough to kill you. But this damage makes you vulnerable to secondary infection, mostly pneumonia.
The data that you haven't mentioned is fatality rates. This is tricky since obviously that majority of people who get the flu don't run to the doctor and get tested. So we do a lot of mathematical modeling to come up with the data you have provided. To compare COVID to the flu we need data. China would be the best source, but, its China and they don't have much of a track record for tell the truth. So lets look at areas that have a better history there.
As you mentioned the level of testing will skew the data heavily.
Agressive testing and isolation of infected As of 6 April 2020
South Korea: 186/10284 x 100 = 1.8%
Germany: 1590/100186 x100 = 1.5%

For a comparison
less aggressive testing but similar in geography and time:
France: 8093/93780 x 100 = 8.6%
Italy: 15887/128948 x 100 = 12.3%

Based on your data the fatality rate for influenza is
61,000/45,000,000 x 100 = 0.13%

While there is still much we don't know about Covid-19, you can't ignore that the fatality rate is at least 10x
This is also what the best current mathematical models are also showing.
For lots of data on this: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality

So with no intervention (based on your data) we have a virus that 2x as infective (R=2-3.11 vs R=1.3) with a 10x fatality rate.
9,300,000 - 45,000,000 x2 = 18,600,000 - 90,000,000 cases x 0.01 = 186,000 to 900,000 fatalities.

(The USA is about 2 weeks behind the curve of Europe, but I have no interest in a political debate. Just the data for me thanks)

One thing to keep in mind. The only limited test for antibodies that I'm aware of was in New York. They tested 15,000 random people at grocery stores. 12% tested positive for antibodies. So take that to a national scale 300 million x 12% would mean that on average 34 million people so far have had Corona. 10% death rate would be 3.4 million. 1% rate would be 340 million. Number of deaths right now . . . round to 75k. Lets assume that everyone tested so far falls into that 34 million -- death rate is .2%. So if we double it to 150k deaths to account for suspected of covid . . . that's still only .4%

• @a_onekatie just chill please. People make mistakes and people need to be responsible for their own safety. The onewheel is not a βsafeβ thing to ride no matter how much protective gear you have on. If you think everyone should be responsible and as safe as possible then no one would go outside... and even then they would be at risk.

Itβs good to set an example for others, but we canβt be held responsible for others irresponsible decisions.

• :

Ok, well apologies for the delay. Been pretty busy lately planning a move across country back to Florida. I'm not looking forward to it as I'm from Florida born and raised but never did get used to the humidity or heat. The only time it doesn't bother me is when I'm literally on the beach π€·π»ββοΈ
In response to the topic and regarding any "numbers" put out there. I take that with a grain of salt at best, remember huge percentage is coming from retirement homes and cases that match those easily suspectable. Before all this happened I got very sick. Covid? Took me two good weeks to get over then roommate got sick got over it slightly quicker than I did. Had the federal government issued tests like every other country myself and those around would have benefited. Gonna stop blabbing here and get your opinions on this. Remember the two doctors who were banned from YouTube because they spoke the truth? Being pushed from their superiors to "lie" about deaths and encouraged to sign off that they were Covid deaths even if they were not? Now extrapolate that out across the country two doctors that haven't come forward how many does that add up to. Many other doctors have come forward if you look into it I have more proof on that. They said this virus is no different than the regular flu virus as far as number of deaths and severity. They were pissed off about the government and media making it out to be something much bigger and the harm it will and is doing to our economy. We have to be smarter American and stick together. We have to be our own investigators and our own believers of what's true and just.if we have learned anything from the internet age thus far is that there is much disinformation out there and if you don't learn how to distinguish truth from BS at the most basic level then you are perfect the controlled Americans they want you to be. That part is not conspiracy just fact. One thing that keeps me grounded and keeps me pissed to find the truth when I don't have the energy is the people that have fought and died and lost everything for our freedom and to protect what we have left of that freedom. Enabling any Injustice against our freedom is a slippery slope I refuse to let happen on my watch if I can help it.
It sickens me to see the conformity of so many Americans having trust and the current government over logic. We are the country The Americans not the government's we are stronger we have numbers no matter how much power they have we will always rule. it stands to reason every so often we have to make a stand to remind them of that. Maybe it's that time.
Watch this video and then tell me what you think. Don't assume you're always being told the truth.
Conspiracy theorist or conspiracy realist?
Godspeed everyone

• @SlyFoxxx You're crazy AF, bro. I work with COVID patients--this is not some "fake news" or media bullcrap. Perhaps I'd best stick with threads that focus on the Onewheel, because this nonsense is pissing me off.

• the millennial crowd is always going to suck the goobermint teat and not question the official narrative they never learned any cognitive thinking so they are mindless drones most believing men actually landed on the moon etc. thankfully they will run to take the vaccines and they will live short lives

• @a_onekatie just chill please. People make mistakes and people need to be responsible for their own safety. The onewheel is not a βsafeβ thing to ride no matter how much protective gear you have on. If you think everyone should be responsible and as safe as possible then no one would go outside... and even then they would be at risk.

Itβs good to set an example for others, but we canβt be held responsible for others irresponsible decisions.

144 miles -- I've only had three crashes -- no broken bones. They CAN be ridden safely. Just many people choose not to. Know the board, respect the board. Know the boards limitations, respect the limitations. Know your skill level, respect your skill level. Know your limitations, respect your limitations.

Part of my doing that, I've downloaded an app to an old cell phone, that's goes in a joggers pouch on my arm. Has a customization "max" speed alarm that I've set at 10 MPH. Anything in my path that looks questionable for my skill level -- I stop and walk the board across if I can't go around it.